Poll after poll suggests Trump’s chances of defeating Biden are rapidly dwindling after the first debate and the president’s COVID-19 diagnosis
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- President Donald Trump’s reelection prospects are looking grim.
- Trump is trailing former Vice President Joe Biden by a significant margin in a number of recent national polls, including one poll that showed Biden with a whopping 16-point lead.
- The president is also behind Biden in a number of crucial battleground states like Florida that are vital to an electoral college victory.
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After a disastrous performance in the first presidential debate and contracting COVID-19, President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2020 presidential election appear to be dwindling rapidly.
Poll after poll has shown former Vice President Joe Biden with a sizeable lead over Trump.
FiveThirtyEight’s updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls shows Biden with a nine-point lead over Trump as of Tuesday (51.4% to 42.2%).
Multiple recent polls have shown Biden ahead of Trump by double-digits, suggesting that the president’s aggressive tactics in the debate and his COVID-19 diagnosis have dealt major blows to his reelection prospects. It will still be some time before the true state of the race can be determined by averaging the polls, but it’s worth noting there have been fewer polls in recent days indicating a tighter race than had been expected.
The debate, a contentious affair in which Trump repeatedly interrupted Biden and lobbed personal attacks, was on Tuesday, September 29. Trump was diagnosed with COVID-19 on Thursday, October 1.
An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted immediately after the debate (September 30 to October 1) showed Biden with a massive 14-point lead over Trump, with 53% of registered voters supporting the Democratic presidential nominee and 39% backing Trump.
A CNN poll that was conducted last Thursday to Monday, just days after the debate and largely after Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis, gave Biden a whopping 16-point lead over the president. The poll, released on Tuesday, showed Biden with the support of 57% of likely voters and Trump with the support of 41%.
Polling has also shown Biden with a significant lead over Trump in crucial battleground states that could make or break either candidate in terms of gaining the electoral college votes necessary for victory (270).
Biden holds a lead over Trump in six swing states, according to a CNBC/Change Research poll released on Tuesday:
- Arizona: Biden 51%, Trump 45%
- Florida: Biden 50%, Trump 46%
- Michigan: Biden 51%, Trump 43%
- North Carolina: Biden 49%, Trump 47%
- Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 46%
- Wisconsin: Biden 51%, Trump 44%
In more good news for the former vice president, a Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday showed Biden with an 11-point lead over Trump’s home state of Florida — 51% to 40%.
There are an array of factors tied to Biden’s solid polling numbers, including that he’s far more popular than Trump among women and older voters. Recent polling also found that a majority of Americans say Trump didn’t do enough to avoid getting COVID-19, suggesting Americans are not feeling especially sympathetic toward the president after he spent months downplaying a virus that ultimately landed him in the hospital.
The president is also controversially pushing ahead with efforts to fill a vacant Supreme Court seat following the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg last month, even as multiple polls show a majority of Americans say that the seat should remain empty until after the election.
The election is less than four weeks away, and COVID-19 positive Trump is in the negative on multiple fronts.
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