Peloton’s earnings shocker just wiped 34% off the stock as home-exercise interest fades – but JPMorgan says a strong holiday season can help propel it back up 60% next year

• Peloton’s weak quarterly earnings highlighted the company’s struggles as home-exercise interest fades.
• But JPMorgan on Friday said a strong holiday season could help propel its stock by 60% next year.
• JPMorgan’s $90 price target for Peloton represents a 60% upside from current levels.
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Peloton‘s weak quarterly earnings highlighted the company’s struggles as home-exercise interest fades with easing COVID-19 restriction. But JPMorgan in a Friday note said a strong holiday season could help propel the stock by as much as 60% next year.

Peloton shares are trading lower by 34% to $56.06 as of 1:29 p.m ET Friday, its biggest one-day drop. But JPMorgan’s new $90 price target for the fitness-equipment maker – though slashed from the prior $138 target – still represents a 60% upside from Friday’s levels.

JPMorgan analysts led by Doug Anmuth maintained their overweight rating ahead of the company’s strongest seasonal period, though they did remove Peloton from their Analyst Focus List. The analysts said they are confident Peloton’s treadmill business could still grow two to three times larger than its bike business.

“We believe Tread is off to a slower than expected start, but it remains early and sales have picked up since Peloton started marketing the product ~30 days ago,” the analysts said.

Following the company’s stock plunge, Peloton’s market capitalization slipped to around $18 billion, compared with around $26 billion on Thursday.

Still, the analysts remain optimistic on Peloton’s prospects.

“We believe Peloton is well-positioned to disrupt the fitness industry through its at-home connected fitness subscription platform, with significant runway for growth as PelotonMembers only represent ~3% of global gym memberships,” they said.

The exercise equipment company disappointed investors with its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Thursday, reporting a net loss of $376 million, or $1.25 a share, compared with a profit of $0.24 per share a year earlier. The company also revealed a gloomy outlook for the full fiscal year, slashing its forecasts for subscriptions and sales.

Peloton flourished in the pandemic, as millions of people in lockdown around the world turned to products and services that helped them stay fit and stave off boredom at home. Sales soared 250% in the first quarter of 2020.