GOP Sen. Cory Gardner defends his seat against Democrat John Hickenlooper in Colorado

• Former Governor John Hickenlooper will face first-term GOP Sen. Cory Gardner in Colorado 2020 US Senate’s race. 
• Hickenlooper has a long track record in Colorado as a former two-term mayor of Denver and a former governor, serving from 2011 to 2019. 
• Since 2014, Colorado has rapidly transformed from a swing state to much more reliably Democrat at the federal and state levels.
• Colorado runs its elections almost entirely by mail. In-person voting closes at 7 p.m. local time. 
• Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

Former Governor John Hickenlooper will face GOP Sen. Cory Gardner in Colorado 2020 US Senate’s race. Colorado runs its elections almost entirely by mail. In-person voting closes at 7 p.m. local time. 

The candidates

Gardner, who was elected to the US Senate in the 2014 Republican midterm wave, is now one of the most vulnerable incumbent GOP senators due to the state’s Democratic shift and his own strong alliance with President Donald Trump.

A former member of the Colorado House and US House of Representatives, Gardner has heavily focused on energy policy and public lands — two key issues in Colorado — during his time in the US Senate. Gardner has voted in line with Trump 89% of the time since 2017, according to FiveThirtyEight. In 2019, Gardner was rated as the third most bipartisan member of the US Senate by the Lugar Center at Georgetown University.

Hickenlooper, a former two-term mayor of Denver from 2004 to 2010, served two terms as the state’s governor from 2011 to 2019. He was elected as a statewide Democrat in 2010 and 2014, two GOP wave years, and was highly regarded by the public as an effective, pragmatic governor. 

Hickenlooper ran an ultimately unsuccessful campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, and announced his campaign for US Senate shortly after dropping out of the presidential contest in August 2019. 

Hickenlooper has faced some setbacks during his campaign; the state’s Independent Ethics Commission found him in contempt for defying a subpoena to appear before the panel. After he did appear to testify, the Commission fined him for violating state ethics laws by accepting private flights and limousine trips as governor. 

Despite some negative headlines, he easily defeated his main opponent in the Democratic primary, Andrew Romanoff, by nearly 20 points on June 30.

The stakes

In addition to winning back the White House, regaining control of the US Senate for the first time since 2015 is a top priority for Democrats and would be a major accomplishment towards either delivering on a future president Joe Biden’s policy goals or thwarting President Donald Trump’s second-term agenda.

Currently, the US Senate is made up of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independents that caucus with Democrats, winning that Democrats need to win back a net total of four seats to have a 51-seat majority (if Biden wins, his vice president would also serve as president of the Senate and would be a tie-breaker vote). 

And now, the US Senate is gearing up for a high-stakes confirmation battle to replace Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died at age 87 on September 18. Within hours of her death, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky pledged that Trump’s nominee for the high court would receive a vote on the floor of the Senate, and Trump said the day after that he would name a replacement “without delay.” 

Ginsburg’s death threw a stick of dynamite into an already supercharged election shaped by a deadly pandemic that has so far claimed over 230,000 American lives. 

On September 21, Gardner announced he would vote to confirm “a qualified nominee” to fill Ginsburg’s seat, spurring massive fundraising for Hickenlooper’s campaign and those of other prominent Democratic Senate candidates

Since 2014, Colorado has rapidly transformed from a swing state to a much more reliably Democratic one at the federal and state levels.

The Democratic presidential candidate has carried Colorado in every presidential election since 2004, with Clinton winning the state by nearly five percentage points in 2016. In the electoral college, the state is rated as “likely Democratic” by the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics and safe Democratic by Inside Elections.

Colorado’s shift towards Democrats and Hickenlooper’s particularly strong track record winning statewide elections as Democrat makes this seat the most promising pick-up opportunity for Democrats, and a must-win seat in the party’s quest to take back the Senate. 

See Insider’s full guide to the race for the US Senate here

The money race

So far, Hickenlooper has raised $39.8 million and spent $35.7 million in the race compared to $23.8 million raised and $21.3 million spent for Gardner as of October 14, according to Federal Election Commission filings. 

Hickenlooper outraised Gardner by nearly a 3-to-1 ratio in 2020’s third fundraising quarter, bringing in $22.6 million compared to $7.8 million for Gardner, Colorado Public Radio reported.

What the polling says

The most recent polls conducted of the race have all shown Hickenlooper leading Gardner by comfortable margins.

The most recent poll of the race conducted by Morning Consult found Hickenlooper ahead of Gardner by eight points, 50% to 42%, among likely voters. Another poll conducted by RMG Research similarly found Hickenlooper ahead by nine points, 51% to 42%, among likely voters, while a survey from Colorado-based RBI Strategies and Research found Hickenlooper ahead by 14 points, 53% to 39%, among likely voters. 

What experts say

Inside Elections and the Cook Political Report rate the race as “leans Democratic,” and Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics rates the race as “likely Democratic.”

According to FiveThirtyEight, Hickenlooper has an 85% chance of defeating Gardner in November. The former governor of Colorado is expected to receive 51% of the popular vote, enough to defeat Gardner and the third-party candidate in the race.