Republican Roger Marshall and Democrat Barbara Bollier vie for an open US Senate seat in Kansas

• GOP Rep. Roger Marshall is running against Democratic State Senator Barbara Bollier to replace retiring Sen. Pat Roberts in Kansas. 
• Bollier will face an uphill battle against Marshall, the preferred pick of the Republican establishment whose Senate bid was backed by Roberts and other prominent Republicans. 
• The protracted and hotly-contested Republican primary fight, however, allowed Bollier to amass a massive cash advantage over Marshall.
• Polls in Kansas close at 7 p.m. local time and 8 p.m. ET. Insider will have live results for this race as they come in.  
• Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

GOP Rep. Roger Marshall is running against Democratic State Senator Barbara Bollier to replace retiring Sen. Pat Roberts in Kansas. Polls in Kansas close at 7 p.m. local time and 8 p.m. ET. Insider will have live results for this race as they come in.  

The candidates

Marshall, who represents the state’s 1st Congressional District, defeated controversial former Secretary of State Kris Kobach and business owner Bob Hamilton in a competitive primary to determine the GOP nominee in the race to succeed Roberts. 

Marshall, a veteran of the US Army Reserves and an OB/GYN by training, is a staunch conservative but still a far more mainstream Republican when compared to Kobach. His primary run was endorsed by outgoing Senator Pat Roberts, National Right to Life, and the US Chamber of Commerce. 

Bollier, also a physician, has served in the Kansas state legislature since 2011 and in the state senate since 2017, where she has advocated for greater healthcare access and education funding in Kansas. A former Republican, she’s positioning herself as a common-sense, pragmatic centrist with experience working across the aisle. 

Bollier will face an uphill battle against Marshall in safely-Republican Kansas. The protracted and hotly-contested Republican primary fight has allowed her to amass a massive cash advantage over Marshall and the other Republicans in the primary race.

She raised $3.7 million in 2020’s second fundraising quarter, breaking an all-time quarterly fundraising record for any federal or state campaign in Kansas history, the Kansas City Star reported. Then in the third quarter, Bollier shattered the record even further by raising over $13 million. 

The race between Bollier and Marshall has heated up in recent weeks as Bollier has ratcheted up her criticism of Marshall for his stances on healthcare and, in her view, for downplaying the threat of the COVID-19 pandemic. In return, Marshall has attacked Bollier’s support for abortion rights and tried to portray her as “out of touch.” 

Bollier also secured a powerful endorsement from former Republican Senator Nancy Kassebaum, who served in the seat for 19 years from 1978 to 1997. 

The stakes

In addition to winning back the White House, regaining control of the US Senate for the first time since 2015 is a top priority for Democrats and would be a major accomplishment towards either delivering on a future president Joe Biden’s policy goals or thwarting Trump’s second-term agenda.

Currently, the US Senate is made up of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independents that caucus with Democrats, winning that Democrats need to win back a net total of four seats to have a 51-seat majority (if Biden wins, his vice president would also serve as president of the Senate and would be a tie-breaker vote). 

And recently, the US Senate just completed a high-stakes confirmation battle to replace Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died at age 87 from pancreatic cancer on September 18 with Justice Amy Coney Barrett. 

Ginsburg’s death threw a stick of dynamite into an already supercharged election shaped by a deadly pandemic that has so far claimed over 230,000 American lives. 

Trump and McConnell’s posturing on the issue has excited conservatives enthusiastic about the possibility of Trump getting to appoint a third justice in his first term, but infuriated liberals who accused McConnell of blatant hypocrisy. and gave Democratic Senate 

Kansas has traditionally been a Republican stronghold, and Marshall winning the August 4 primary was a relief for national Republicans concerned that Kobach’s bombastic political brand and very recent statewide loss in the 2018 Kansas gubernatorial election would hurt their chances in the general election.

Still, Republicans are largely playing defense in 2020 to maintain control of the chamber, with both sides continuing to invest in the race. The Wall Street Journal reported in August that a PAC aligned with Sen. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell spent over $4 million on TV ads to boost Marshall immediately after the primary. 

See Insider’s full guide to the race for the US Senate here

The money race

Thanks to the long and expensive Republican primary battle Marshall spent much of 2020 competing in, Bollier has massively outpaced Marshall in both campaign fundraising and spending.

Bollier has raised $20.4 million, spent $12.9 million, and has $7.5 million in cash on hand, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, compared to $5.4 million raised, $4.3 million spent, and $1.7 million in cash on hand for Marshall. 

In 2020’s third fundraising quarter, Bollier raised $13.5 million compared to just $2.9 million for Marshall, Roll Call noted. 

What the polling says

Polls of the race conducted after the primary have been few and far between, but all have indicated that Marshall’s posturing in the race has suffered considerably from the bitter GOP primary.

In a Public Policy Polling survey conducted immediately after the primary in August, Marshall led Bollier by one point, 43% to 42%, down from the 10-point lead he held over Bollier in March. 

A subsequent poll conducted by Data for Progress from September 14 to 19 found Marshall and Bollier in a tie among likely voters.

The most recent high-quality poll of the race conducted by The New York Times and Siena College found Marshall leading Bollier by four points 46% to 42%, among likely voters with Libertarian candidate Jason Buckley earning 4% support. 

What the experts say

The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate this race as “leans Republican” while Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics rates it as “likely Republican.” 

According to FiveThirtyEight’s US Senate model, Marshall has a 77% chance of defeating Bollier in the November election. Marshall is expected to receive 51% of the popular vote compared to 46% for Bollier.