The modelling, undertaken by University of Adelaide specialist academics and summarised by chief public health officer Nicola Spurrier, detailed three different scenarios — each with different levels of restrictions and mask-wearing rules. Under the best-case scenario where the restrictions and mask wearing rules remain, there is an estimated 27 per cent chance of an outbreak once 80 per cent of the state’s eligible residents are fully vaccinated and travel from Covid-infected states begins on November 23. An outbreak is defined in the modelling as more than 100 cases per day over any three-day period. If an outbreak was to occur, it was suggested the hospital system would be able to manage with an estimated peak occupancy of 36 patients in ward beds and nine in intensive care. The modelling claimed there was an “extremely small chance” of demand exceeding 200 ward beds or 30 intensive care beds in that scenario. However, it was predicted there would be an average of 13 deaths over a 300-day period. That figure would jump to 315 and the chance of an outbreak reaching 84 per cent if the model with the lowest level of restrictions was implemented. “The model has been based on seeding of cases into South Australia at a hypothetical rate of 20 infectious cases per day for 30 days, noting that not all of these cases will be detected by testing,” Professor Spurrier’s modelling summary read. “This rate of seeding is considered reasonable given the predicted number of people entering South Australia from the states where there are high rates of community transmission.”According to the modelling, all scenarios were based on 80 per cent of the state’s population being vaccinated and the borders opening to fully vaccinated people. But it didn‘t account for decreasing immunity or booster shots that have since been approved by Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI).Speaking on ABC Radio on Monday, Professor Spurrier said authorities were focused on reaching vaccination targets and even though the level of restrictions wouldn’t be eased once 80 per cent of residents were vaccinated, she said there were still more freedoms for South Australians than those in NSW or Victoria.But she said it was vital to reach a vaccination rate “well above” 90 per cent so people could live as normal lives as possible. “If we only have vaccinations of 80-85 per cent we’ll have to keep going like this (with the same level of restrictions), so it’s so important to get well above 90 per cent,” Professor Spurrier said. “Then it means we can have the disease in a more endemic way where it doesn’t rule our lives.”She said the modelling was useful to understand how the healthcare system would cope with increased Covid-19 cases because if it was overwhelmed, patients with other healthcare problems wouldn’t be able to be seen or treated for those issues. Professor Spurrier said further modelling would be undertaken between the state’s 80 per cent and 90 per cent vaccination targets. It was announced last week that SA would open its borders to all Australian jurisdictions for fully vaccinated travellers in about three weeks, once the state reaches its 80 per cent double-jab target. Under the changes, fully vaccinated international arrivals will only be required to quarantine for seven days and the cap for home gatherings will increase from 20 people to 30.Restrictions will further ease once 90 per cent of South Australians aged 16 and over have received both vaccine doses, but masks will still need to be worn in high-risk settings, like hospitals and aged care facilities. The requirement for Covid management plans will also remain.
Powered by WPeMatico
