When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.
- Port backlogs, high gas prices, and more issues will affect the holiday shopping season this year.
- You should plan to buy your gifts and holiday decor as early as possible to avoid stock issues and shipping delays.
- If you wait until the last minute, you’ll need to get creative or opt for a last-minute gift.
Retailers and logistics experts have warned that supply-chain problems will make certain items more expensive or difficult to obtain this holiday season. They’re urging people to start shopping early, well before Black Friday, if they want to ensure they have presents – and a tree to put them under.
“Supply-chain disruptions have really been impacting the retail industry since the start of the pandemic,” Katherine Cullen, National Retail Federation‘s senior director of industry and consumer insights, told Insider.
The problems have been piling up for over a year and a half, compounding one another. “There are many links, and if a link is broken, then the stuff doesn’t move,” said Rosemary Coates, president of Blue Silk Consulting and a global trade expert. She calls it a supply-chain reaction.
While shoppers are used to dealing with certain items like the latest PlayStation selling out quickly during the holidays, more items may be impacted this year. That doesn’t mean you won’t be able to find anything – you just may not be able to find the exact thing.
“Retailers have inventory, but they’re still also waiting for some,” said Simone Peinkofer, assistant professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University’s Broad College of Business. Stores will replenish their stock as the weeks go on, said Cullen, so the earlier you start looking, the more opportunity you’ll have to find what you want.
Here’s what to expect from shipping delays and stock issues during 2021’s holiday shopping season.
Why is everyone worried about the supply chain?
There are a number of factors impacting the supply chain, which has been under strain since the start of the pandemic as people bought more goods. “We’re all at home, ordering stuff on Amazon, and that caused a huge spike in demand for products, particularly coming from China,” said Coates. Now, cargo ships are waiting to unload thousands of shipping containers as dockworkers struggle to deal with the backlog.
“We still have the issue of COVID popping up in countries and potentially shutting down factories,” said Peinkofer. Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand have all dealt with labor shortages related to the pandemic.
But it’s not an isolated issue. There aren’t enough truck drivers to pick up the goods once they’re unloaded. Warehouses are struggling to hire workers. Hurricanes and power outages haven’t helped, either. Also, the supply of cardboard boxes is lower than normal. “It’s a little bit of whack-a-mole,” said Coates. “You fix one problem, and another problem pops up.”
What products will be hard to get this year?
Experts say everything from books to ugly Christmas sweaters to Nike shoes could be difficult to find if you wait to do your holiday shopping. Toys could be pricier this year, too.
Automakers have long made commercials touting vehicles adorned with ribbons as the perfect gift, but car prices, for both new and used, are more expensive than ever.
The computer chip shortage that’s affecting the auto industry is also impacting electronics. Both the PlayStation 5 and Nintendo Switch are facing stock issues. Some laptops, TVs, and smartphones may also be difficult to find.
Cullen doesn’t think shoppers should panic, though. “Most of the retailers we’re talking to feel that they’re in a fairly good position for holiday shopping,” she said. Many pushed up their ordering times and ordered more stock to prepare for the expected delays. “That doesn’t mean that certain products or some of the top items might not sell out,” she said. “But we face that every holiday season.”
“If you look at the Walmarts, the Targets, the Lowes, the Best Buys, they have the inventory because they started to actually bring that into the country early on in anticipation of potential supply chain issues,” said Peinkofer.
Should I wait for Black Friday sales to buy gifts?
Traditionally, many people wait until Black Friday to buy holiday gifts in order to get deals, but that’s been changing over the past several years. “Thanksgiving weekend is no longer the kickoff it might’ve been 10 or 20 years ago,” said Cullen. “It’s much more sort of the halfway point.” Shoppers like starting earlier, so all their holiday purchases aren’t coming out of a single paycheck, she said.
We’re already seeing retailers start offering Black Friday deals, with more expected soon. However, some analysts suggest the sales won’t be as robust as in previous years because of the supply-chain issues.
Should I buy in-store or online?
The cardboard shortage, price of gasoline, and labor shortages have made shipping more expensive and unpredictable. “We’re feeling it like every other business, and businesses are grappling with whether and how to pass that cost on to customers,” said Seth Goldman, CEO of flowery delivery service UrbanStems. “And you’re going to see that this holiday season.” Earlier this year, the company upgraded to making next-day delivery its default without charging customers extra.
Retailers that operate online and in physical locations may have a product in stock on their website but not in a store or vice versa. It’s something we’ve seen with everything from toys to wrapping paper at stores like Target and Macy’s. Since the pandemic, many stores offer same-day pickup, including curbside options.
“I’ve certainly seen some retailers who are offering a gift card or a discount for store pickup to encourage consumers to use that option where it’s available,” said Cullen. For online-only items, she suggests checking stores’ websites and social channels to find information about shipping deadlines.
If you plan to buy gifts in person and send them to relatives, keep in mind the shipping deadlines from carriers like UPS and FedEx.
I waited until the last minute. Now what?
As convenient as big-box stores and Amazon are, there’s a lot to be said for local shops with curated selections. Experts are also recommending you hunt for finds at your favorite thrift store this season.
Gift cards, subscription boxes, and other last-minute gift options will ensure you still have something to give on the big day. Goldman said that December 23 is cutting it a bit close, but UrbanStems will be open and sending out next-day-delivery orders that day.
And you can always print out a picture of their backordered gift that will arrive post-holiday. “The inventory is coming eventually,” Peinkofer said. “It is in the supply chain.”
Will next year be better?
Probably not. “This is not something that’s going to be resolved in a week or two,” said Coates. She estimates it will be 18 to 24 months before things return to semi-normal.
But, she adds, the issues are deeper than backlogged ports and cardboard supply. “That part is temporary,” she said, “but our infrastructure problems are not temporary.”
Powered by WPeMatico
