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- On Thursday morning, Russia sent shockwaves around the world by launching an invasion of Ukraine.
- The move has already had reverberations for the global economy, and consumers could soon feel it in their wallets.
- Bread might get more expensive, and you should prepare to pay more at the pump.
On Thursday morning, Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine, an event that threatens to rattle global markets and prompt higher prices for gas, wheat, and a range of other goods.
The human toll of any conflict is, of course, immeasurable. Reuters reported that at least eight Ukrainian civilians were killed by Russian shelling; 40 Ukrainian soldiers and 50 Russian soldiers have also reportedly been killed.
“The prayers of the entire world are with the people of Ukraine tonight as they suffer an unprovoked and unjustified attack by Russian military forces,” President Joe Biden said in a statement on Wednesday night.
The effects of President Vladimir Putin’s assault probably won’t be limited to Ukraine, and will ripple far beyond Europe. While few of Russia’s exports head directly to the US, The New York Times reported, Americans have already felt some consequences of the brewing conflict. Prices at the pump rose in recent months partly due to the rising threat of war. Prices on some foods are also at risk. And depending on the length of the conflict, it could affect overall inflation, which is already at a 40-year high.
Plus, investors are getting jittery about the economy. The Nasdaq fell 3%, slipping into a bear-market. The S&P 500 also tumbled down.
What does this all mean for Americans? Insider has compiled the reporting and research on how the Ukraine-Russia conflict will hit wallets in the US.
Prices on some foods will rise even higher
In the case of this invasion, one immediate impact may be even more supply chain woes — and more expensive food. Alan Holland, the CEO and founder of sourcing software company Keelvar, told CNBC that Ukraine is the "breadbasket of Europe."
That's because, as Insider's George Glover reports, Ukraine and Russia together account for nearly a third of the world's wheat market. And, as Reuters reports, Russia and Ukraine also make up about 19% of world corn supply, and a whopping 80% of sunflower oil exports. Holland told CNBC that an invasion would mean that the food supply chain would get "hit hard." Now wheat futures' prices are on the rise, coming in at $926 for 5,000 bushels.
That means you may feel the toll on your wallet as food suppliers scramble to buy wheat, and have to pay a hefty price for it. Your favorite bread's price might go up.
Of course, that comes on top of inflation soaring to its highest in 40 years, meaning food could get even more expensive on top of already-increasing prices. In January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that food prices have increased by 7% year-over-year.
Gas prices are already spiking and may climb more
The start of the Russian military assault on Ukraine sent oil prices to just over $100 a barrel. That's the highest level for an oil barrel since 2014.
The average cost for a gallon of gas in the US recently hit $3.53, according to AAA. The group had attributed rising prices to the threat of an invasion in Ukraine. It also said prices could climb further if Russia decides to hoard oil from the global market in retaliation for a fresh round of US and EU sanctions.
Russia does wield economic power as a major producer of oil and natural gas. Its heavy reliance on those exports has caused some experts to compare the country to "a big gas station."
"Other than oil/gas and a few metals, like palladium, Russia is far from an economic powerhouse," Patrick Chovanic, an economic advisor to Silvercrest Asset Management, wrote on Twitter.
Other European nations like Germany are Russia's biggest customers while the US imports far more from other oil-producing countries instead. Still, energy commodity markets stretch across borders — and any impact in one part of the world affects its cost and ultimately how much people consume.
It could mean even higher inflation and affect interest rates on mortgages and credit cards
The impact on inflation depends on the length and severity of the conflict.
Inflation is already high in the US, soaring to 7.5% in January. That was higher than economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected and marked yet another acceleration. In fact, as Insider's Ben Winck reported, it's the strongest price growth in 40 years. Inflation in Europe also hit new record levels for the third month in a row, according to Al Jazeera.
The Fed has been hinting at raising interest rates, a key tool to cool inflation as consumers see higher payments for things like cars, and spending slows. In recent weeks, Bank of America forecast that rates would go up 11 times over the next year; JP Morgan forecasts nine rate hikes at every meeting until next March. If commodity prices keep going up because of the conflict, those rate hikes may be even more likely.
If the Fed raises rates as planned next month, that could mean higher interest that makes mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards more expensive, Insider's Ben Winck reported.
Others disagree on the Fed's potential course of action. Economist Mohamed El-Eiran told CNBC that aggressive rate hikes are "completely off the table" with the invasion.
"The Fed is going to have to be even more careful, and it's going to have to tolerate higher inflation," he said.
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