Biden’s State of the Union speech needs to show the US a clear map out of economic trouble even as he deals with Ukraine, Democratic strategists say

• Biden will give his first State of the Union address on Tuesday night.
• Biden must address people’s fears about the economy head-on, Democratic strategists said.
• The Ukraine crisis also gives Biden a chance to flex his foreign policy experience.

When he gives his first State of the Union address on Tuesday, President Joe Biden must meet the tall order of convincing Americans that everything’s going to be fine, even as he faces the unenviable trifecta of problems relating to rising inflation, the end of the coronavirus pandemic, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

To do so, Democratic insiders say Biden will need to honestly address the reality that many people in the US are feeling pinched, exhausted, and demoralized by high costs and lingering disruptions from COVID-19 —  and show them the way out. In the meantime, viewers are keeping a wary eye on Ukraine and will be looking to the president to share what the US will do next.

The main question that voters demand an answer to is, “What now?” said China Dickerson, a Democratic strategist who has worked with congressional candidates.

In previews of Biden’s speech, the White House indicated that addressing the economy and inflation will be a primary focus as the president lays out his agenda for the next year. Biden will announce plans to manufacture more goods in America, the White House said, and will “lay out specific, practical measures that would reduce costs for families right now, including prescription drug costs and health care premiums, child care and pre-k costs, and energy costs.”

While the Biden administration has for a year touted its passage of the American Rescue Plan, its mass vaccination campaign, and a strong economic turnaround, Dickerson said that most Americans’ preoccupations are more immediately tied to their wallets and wellbeing, and do not have a clear sense of how Biden has or will help them.

“Have gas prices gone down? Is milk more affordable? Did I just get a raise at my job? How many people have died from COVID?” Dickerson said. “We want to know how, for everyday Americans, their life has changed based on who’s sitting at the White House.”

For African American and Latino communities that have disproportionately felt the health and economic impacts of the pandemic, the need for tangible solutions to the cost of basic goods and healthcare were especially pronounced, Dickerson said.

State of the Union speeches are often hour-plus long pep talks for the party in power and don’t usually sway the public’s opinion of a president. Their true usefulness is in setting a narrative for the president’s party to follow, and given the looming November elections, Democrats are in need of a playbook. Thus far, the party has struggled to land upon a consistent economic message or coherent narrative for voters about how they are guiding America out of the pandemic, Democratic operatives have told Insider.

Biden’s best course of action isn’t to pretend that everything is better now, Democratic strategists told Insider.

Democrats are quick to tout that the economy added 6.6 million new jobs in 2021, and that the unemployment rate sat at just 4% in January. Biden’s boosters also point to rising wages, record economic growth, and increased hiring as signs that Democrats are steering the economy in the right direction.

But Americans are still anxious about their economic outlook, mostly due to inflation. 

“He should acknowledge everything that’s happening economically,” said Atima Omara, a Virginia-based Democratic strategist. “The economy overall is doing better but inflation is just hitting people’s pockets harder.”

“He has to make this about, ‘I feel your pain, and how can I address that?’, either through legislation or as some people have said, finding new ways to executive orders to address some of this,” Omara said. “If he can provide solutions, or speak to what some of those solutions might be, he might put more people at ease.”

Ukraine is a major challenge — and opportunity for Biden 

Much of Biden’s first year in office revolved around very public legislative failures, like the blockage by Republicans of two key voting rights bills and the Build Back Better bill. With the Senate filibuster still intact, it’s unlikely that Democrats will be able to pass any major agenda items before the midterm elections in November.

Now, the Ukraine crisis presents the onetime chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee with an opportunity to flex his leadership muscles and speak to one of the few issues that both Democrats and Republicans in Congress can agree on: stopping Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“With the events in Ukraine, he doesn’t need to take control of the narrative,” said Chris Stirewalt, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank. “He finally has a narrative that aligns with his interests.”

While State of the Union speeches can be long and wonky, Stirewalt said that Biden should take advantage of an issue at the forefront of both parties’ minds.

“His challenge will be, can he take the goodwill from the Ukraine crisis, and the rallying around the flag effect that is happening both in the Congress and the country,” said Stirewalt. “How can he use that without being seen as exploiting it?”

Omara, the Democratic strategist, said Biden should “take the opportunity to talk about what’s happening in Ukraine, but tie it largely to the general fight for democracy and against authoritarianism.”

Biden likely won’t have time to linger for long on Ukraine, as the State of the Union address by design includes a grab bag of the president’s priorities on everything from the economy to his historic new pick for the Supreme Court, Biden just nominated Ketanji Brown Jackson.

Dickerson cautioned that Biden should not stray too far from the immediate economic issues on Americans’ minds, like finding a well-paying job and supporting their families.

“Ukraine,” Dickerson said, “Doesn’t answer, ‘Now what?’ It just doesn’t.”