Got to give credit where credit is due. Simplicius76 is an unidentified Substack writer who has written the best analysis I have seen of the tactical and strategic dimensions of the war in Ukraine and the upcoming Russian offensive. Russia is doing what it has done through history in the major conflicts where it prevailed — i.e., maskirovka (disguising its plans and movements). Russia is moving troops and equipment on fronts in the north, the east and the south. They are currently attacking in several different sectors, which is forcing Ukraine to redeploy frantically troops to try to counter new threats that are springing up like raging wild fires.

Here are links to four of Simplicius76’s recent articles. Must read material if you want to understand what has happened and what is about to unfold in the coming weeks. The first article discusses in depth the erroneous assumptions that have been made about an expected Russia offensive:

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/the-coming-russian-offensive-2023

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/the-coming-russian-offensive-part

The third article lifts the veil that surrounds the Russian and NATO ISR activities (aka Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) and how spy satellites and other collection systems make it difficult to hide what an army is doing.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/all-seeing-eye-can-russia-break-through

The most recent article by Simplicius76, SITREP: Update 2/18 – Major War Confirmed Imminent, presents the evidence that indicates a dramatic expansion in Russia’s offensive against Ukraine.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-update-218-major-war-confirmed

His article, All Seeing Eye: Can Russia Break Through The West’s ISR Overmatch?, provides terrific insights on how modern Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance systems have altered dramatically war in the 21st Century. Russia can no longer create and deploy an army in secret as it did with Operation Uranus, which attacked the German Army besieging Stalingrad from the north and the south and ultimately trapped Van Paulus’ Sixth Army. But that does not mean Russia is incapable of hiding where it plans to strike or of deceiving Ukraine and NATO about its intentions.

I continue to believe that the increased military operations by Russia during the last three weeks are part of the offensive that many in the West believe will come in the Spring. The next couple of weeks will mark a watershed in the war in Ukraine.