The record turnout potentially in the New Hampshire primary isn’t full of MAGA supporters, but is split between Republicans and Independents.
Here are some of the results:
Other early findings —
Composition of the electorate:
Registered Republican: 49%
Registered undeclared: 47%
Ideology:
Very conservative: 24%
Somewhat Conservative: 39%
Moderate: 31%*
*was 9% in Iowa
— David Wright (@DavidWright_7) January 23, 2024
These numbers match up with some on the ground observations that turnout in New Hampshire is high areas with large percentages of independent voters and moderate Republicans. There was talk earlier in the day of Trump potentially setting records for Republican support in an Iowa primary. That idea seems to be evaporating as the composition of the electorate becomes known.
This is the sort of exit polling demographics that Nikki Haley needs to be competitive in New Hampshire and pull an upset.
A loss for would be harmful for Trump in New Hampshire, because his campaign is spending money hand over fist on legal bills and can’t afford a long primary fight with Haley. Trump essentially wants to win big in New Hampshire so that he can proclaim the primary finished and stop campaigning.
If Nikki Haley wins, she will force Trump to compete, and maybe even get him to participate in a debate.
The fact that a Republican primary electorate is 64% not MAGA, and split on whether the 2020 election was stolen is a bad sign for Trump in New Hampshire.
A Special Message From PoliticusUSA
If you are in a position to donate purely to help us keep the doors open on PoliticusUSA during what is a critical election year, please do so here.
We have been honored to be able to put your interests first for 14 years as we only answer to our readers and we will not compromise on that fundamental, core PoliticusUSA value.
