A new Fox News poll caused Trump’s favorite network to label President Biden as the frontrunner in the 2024 election.
No singular poll should be taken as gospel, but Fox News reported:
President Biden is the frontrunner in a hypothetical matchup against former President Trump for the first time since October, as positive views of the economy inch up — hitting their highest level thus far in the Biden presidency, according to a new Fox News national survey.
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The key is that Independents favor Biden by 9 points, a shift from May when they preferred Trump by 2 points. While equal numbers of Independents say leadership (59%) and integrity (58%) are extremely important to their vote decision, they are more likely to say Biden has integrity by 23 points compared to Trump being a strong leader by only 11. More on those traits later.
Biden has seen his support grow among Independents, African Americans, women, and seniors. Trump remains strong among men, rural voters, and white evangelical voters. In other words, Trump’s base has remained the same for the last eight years.
The factor that is driving Biden’s growth with Independent voters is Trump’s felony conviction. A different poll found that more than twenty percent of Independent votes would not consider voting for Trump if he was convicted of a felony.
Experts have predicted for months that the poll numbers would shift once voters began to pay attention to the election. This is still going to be a very close contest. One poll does not change anything, but the momentum has clearly shifted in the last month or two to President Biden.
Trump has a problem, and he appears to lack the campaign infrastructure to broaden his base and appeal to different voters than those who are already committed to him. If inflation continues to improve, Trump could be sunk by November.
