A new poll of Pennsylvania by Susquehanna Polling and Research has found that Vice President Kamala Harris now leads ex-president Donald Trump by four points in Pennsylvania.
Here is the topline result, which is within the poll’s four-point margin of error:
BREAKING NEWS: SP&R today releases its latest Pa poll in the race for POTUS. It shows Harris w/ narrow 4-point lead within the poll’s +/-4.0% MOE. Field Dates 7/22-7/28; sample size 600 LV. pic.twitter.com/Xi6XISxRMO
— SP&R (@SusquehannaPR) July 30, 2024
This is one of the recently more accurate polls in the state of Pennsylvania. They came within a point of the 2020 presidential race in the state, and they were within a point on Josh Shapiro’s win in the governor’s race in 2022. They did miss the Fetterman Senate race, where they had Oz with a one-point lead, but that was a race where almost all of the Pennsylvania polls underestimated the support for John Fetterman.
Looking beyond the numbers, the latest Pennsylvania poll is in line with other polling that shows a 3-5 point movement toward Harris compared to the final Trump/Biden numbers.
The election has shifted, and the movement is Democrats and Independents who were concerned about Joe Biden moving firmly into the Harris camp.
VP Harris has not chosen her running mate yet, and if she picks Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, her polling in the Keystone State will go even higher.
The only thing that is certain is that the result will be close in Pennsylvania.
