Photo Courtesy of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security
This year, Iran has launched a number of missile attacks on Israel, the largest of which came on October 1st in retaliation for Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah. Escalating tensions prompts the question of whether Israel can effectively counter a larger, more sustained missile attack from Iran.
Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, particularly the Emad missiles, have a range of up to 1,800 kilometers, allowing launches from various locations in Iran, including Shiraz, Kermanshah, Khorramshahr, Isfahan, and Tehran. Major Yochanan Ben-Yaakov told Israel’s Security and Defense Forum (ISDF) that most of the recent attacks originated from Shiraz; because it is at a lower elevation, the Iranians believe it is more difficult for Israel to hit in a counterstrike.
Although Emad missiles are designed for long-range capabilities, they are not highly accurate. As a liquid-fueled missile, the Emad is less reliable and more challenging to launch compared to solid-fueled systems. This results in reduced accuracy and reliability, especially when compared to Israel’s more advanced precision-guided missile systems. In the October 1st attack, Iran launched approximately 180 missiles at Israel, the majority of which were intercepted by Israel’s air defenses or by the US Navy.
Major Ben-Yaakov told Israel’s Security and Defense Forum (ISDF) that Israel has the capability to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, pending government approval. “We have F-35s, F-15s, and, of course, Jericho missiles, which are highly accurate and precise, unlike Iranian missiles…yes, we can {do it}.”
Iran’s Shahed 136 and 238 UAVs are kamikaze drones with a 100 kg payload and a range of up to 4,000 kilometers, designed to crash into targets. These drones lack cameras and cannot transmit intelligence, taking 7-9 hours to reach Israel. Israel uses its advanced Iron Dome defense system to decide whether to intercept them. The Iron Dome, developed to protect civilian areas, tracks and destroys short-range threats like rockets and UAVs using radar-guided missiles, ensuring efficient protection while conserving costly interceptors for real threats.
Systems like Iron Dome are designed to intercept short-range threats, such as UAVs, while David’s Sling handles medium to long-range threats, like cruise missiles. Both use advanced radar detection and guidance to track and neutralize incoming dangers. For ballistic missiles, Israel employs the Patriot and Arrow systems, providing layered protection depending on the threat. Emad missiles, with a range of about 2,000 kilometers, could reach Israel from Iran in 2-3 hours, depending on the launch location, requiring quick defense decisions.
Anti-missile systems are costly, so Israel carefully assesses whether to intercept based on the threat’s trajectory and potential impact. Many Iranian missiles and drones malfunction, crash, or land in areas like Jordan or unpopulated regions of Israel, reducing the need for interception. Major Ben-Yaakov explained that drones or missiles launched from Yemen are even less reliable, with the majority successfully intercepted by Israeli defense systems, further minimizing damage and the need for unnecessary defensive actions.
According to Major Ben-Yaakov, in retaliation, Israel could target Iran’s oil infrastructure, including refineries in Tehran, Abadan, and the Persian Gulf, with Harj Island being particularly crucial as it supplies China with 2 million barrels of discounted oil daily. Other possible targets include the Bandar Abbas terminal, IRGC bases in Kermanshah, and the Natanz a key nuclear site. Tehran, as the seat of government, would also be at risk. Israel can strike these locations with jets or Jericho ballistic missiles, capable of covering nearly every target in Iran.
Amid fears of retaliation from Israel for its recent missile attack, Iran has launched diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, seeking to reduce the scale of Israel’s potential response. Iran is concerned about the possibility of Israeli strikes on its nuclear sites and oil facilities, particularly given that Hezbollah, Iran’s key proxy, has been weakened. The Biden administration is urging Israel for restraint, while Gulf states have communicated their reluctance to be involved. Despite ongoing talks, Iran is unsure of the exact nature of Israel’s impending response.
Republicans are pushing Biden to take a harsher stance against Iran. Many Republicans in Congress urged Israel to retaliate fiercely against Iran, while leading Democrats were more cautious, calling for restraint and patience.
Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky and the minority leader, said in a statement, “It is not enough to intercept missiles and drones moments before they reach civilians in Israel or U.S. personnel in the Red Sea.” McConnell also called for the U.S. to replenish Israel’s munitions, stating, “It is time for the world’s leading architects of terror, and their proxies, to face severe consequences.”
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