War Room guest host Ben Harnwell discusses with lead Rasmussen pollster Mark Mitchell betting markets being an indicator for Trump victory on October 28th, 2024
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War Room guest host Ben Harnwell discussed with lead Rasmussen pollster Mark Mitchell on Monday, betting markets and their indicators of a potential victory for President Trump.
“Do you still give these betting markets any credibility?” Harnwell asked.
“Yes and no. I think they absolutely show a signal. In fact, if you only had to pick between mainstream media and the betting markets, I think the betting markets have done a better job of interpreting the polls than the mainstream media has,” Mitchell said.
“The polling lead that she had was entirely fake. But what happened is before the polling even broke down, the betting markets started looking at the existing polling and Donald Trump was tied in every single swing state for like two months on the Real Clear Politics aggregate,” Mitchell continued.
Mitchell explained that ultimately the betting market will be right in predicting the outcome of the Presidential election.
“At the end of the day, the betting market is going to be right at the end,” Mitchell said.
“So right now, all the signs and indications are stacking up for a Trump win. We’ve been at Trump plus two this entire time. People have been watching our daily tracker. It’s had a few hiccups in the last day or two. It’s back up to a Trump plus one today. I’m pretty sure the average is gonna be Trump plus two,” Mitchell continued.
“Right now, the betting markets show that Trump is gonna have a massive win. All the election prediction models, Nate Silver, Decision Desk, 538, all show a possible Trump win, and I think our polling does as well, Trump plus two nationally. He’s probably gonna pick up almost all the swing states and all our polling in the swing states have been favorable to Trump too,” Mitchell said.
“All the signs are really starting to add up. There is gonna be a Trump outperformance of the polls something I’ve been saying for weeks, I think it’s gonna happen. And I think Polymarket is wise to it and you are not gonna hear it on MSNBC, CNN or any of the networks because they still want to give Kamala Harris this big narrative that she could win,” Mitchell continued.
Watch:
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