After 18 months of endless cheerleading and gobs of hopium, the Western powers are now struggling to deal with the reality that they are losing their ass in Ukraine. The clearest sign is that Southfront.org has been removed from the internet. So much for freedom of speech. You can continue to follow Southfront on Telegram here. Southfront is a legit news outlet. The only problem is that it does not consent to kiss the ass of the Western lies.
Another canary in the mineshaft sending out signals that oxygen is in short supply is this article from Friday’s Washington Post, U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive’s key goal. The article is a stunner. Here are some highlights:
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine’s counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won’t fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia’s land bridge to Crimea in this year’s push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia’s brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
If only they had been reading Sonar21.com they would have come to this conclusion much earlier. You do not have to be Clausewitz or Sun Tzu to realize that an offensive that is not accompanied by air superiority and effective mobile artillery and mobile air defense would fail against an entrenched, heavily armored opponent. What kool aid were these clowns drinking?
Ukraine launched the counteroffensive in early June hoping to replicate its stunning success in last fall’s push through the Kharkiv region.
But in the first week of fighting, Ukraine incurred major casualties against Russia’s well-prepared defenses despite having a range of newly acquired Western equipment, including U.S. Bradley Fighting Vehicles, German-made Leopard 2 tanks and specialized mine-clearing vehicles.
Once again. Ground forces have zero chance of success against an entrenched foe that has air superiority and a massive drone force. This is military incompetence on a grand scale. Vehicles trying to tip toe thru a mine field while the Russians have zeroed their artillery on those approaches is nothing short of a suicide mission.
“Russia has three main defensive lines there and then fortified cities after that,” he said. “It’s not just a question about whether Ukraine can breach one or two of them, but can they breach all three and have enough forces available after taking attrition to achieve something more significant like taking Tokmak or something beyond that.”
The bleak outlook, briefed to some Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill, has already prompted a blame game inside closed-door meetings. Some Republicans are now balking at President Biden’s request for an additional $20.6 billion in Ukraine aid given the offensive’s modest results. Other Republicans and, to a lesser extent, hawkish Democrats have faulted the administration for not sending more powerful weapons to Ukraine sooner.
U.S. officials reject criticisms that F-16 fighter jets or longer-range missile systems such as ATACMS would have resulted in a different outcome. “The problem remains piercing Russia’s main defensive line, and there’s no evidence these systems would’ve been a panacea,” a senior administration official said.
During my time at CIA we had an expression for the Captain Obivious conclusion — we called it, “No Shit Analysis.” The F-16 is not a wunder waffen. It has no magical powers. It is an aircraft that can readily be identified by Russia’s robust, integrated air defense system and it will be shot down. God pity the pilots of those planes if they ever make it to the theater of battle.
The publication of this article in the Washington Post is just another sign of flagging U.S. support for Ukraine. This is sending a signal that the U.S. intel community is no longer on the Ukraine band wagon.
Here is today’s roundtable with Judge Napolitano, Ray McGovern and your’s truly.
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