A poll released Sunday by ABC News and the Washington Post has President Trump leading Joe Biden in a 2024 rematch, 52 percent to 42 percent among registered voters. The survey was taken between September 15-20 of 1,006 U.S. adults, including 890 registered voters, with a margin of error of 3.5 percent. While the Post hedges in their reporting on the poll that it could be an outlier, other questions in the poll indicate the bottom is falling out for Biden while Trump is gaining support as the public now has a direct comparison of their respective presidencies almost three years since Trump left office. Biden’s approval stands at 37 percent with 56 percent disapproval. Current opinion on Trump’s presidency in the poll is 48 percent approval and 49 percent disapproval.
Public opinion on Biden is such that more Americans would blame him and Democrats for a government shutdown in the current budget battle than would blame Republicans, 40 percent to 33 percent.
Washington Post graphic comparing recent Trump-Biden polling match-ups, September 24, 2023.
A Washington Post-ABC News poll finds President Biden struggling to gain approval from a skeptical public, with dissatisfaction growing over his handling of the economy and immigration, a rising share saying the United States is doing too much to aid Ukraine in its war with Russia and broad concerns about his age as he seeks a second term.
Biden and former president Donald Trump appear headed for a rematch of their 2020 contest, although more than 3 in 5 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they would prefer a nominee other than the president. But Biden’s advisers have argued that he is the strongest Democrat for 2024 and those who wish for someone else share no consensus on who that should be, with 8 percent naming Vice President Harris, 8 percent naming Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and 20 percent saying they prefer “just someone else.”
The Post-ABC poll shows Biden trailing Trump by 10 percentage points at this early stage in the election cycle, although the sizable margin of Trump’s lead in this survey is significantly at odds with other public polls that show the general election contest a virtual dead heat. The difference between this poll and others, as well as the unusual makeup of Trump’s and Biden’s coalitions in this survey, suggest it is probably an outlier.
In his bid to become the Republican presidential nominee for a third time, Trump is in a strong position nationally despite facing multiple criminal charges. He is favored by 54 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, little changed from 51 percent in May. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is second at 15 percent, down from 25 percent in May. No other Republican reaches double digits. Trump also leads his GOP rivals in recent state polls, which are likely to be more reliable indicators than national polls of the shape of the GOP race in the coming months.
…Biden’s travails have been well documented this year in Post-ABC and other polls, although those surveys have shown that a general election contest between the two men remains a toss-up. The latest Post-ABC survey, however, produced a surprising result, with Trump ahead of Biden among registered voters by 10 percentage points — 52 percent to 42 percent. In May, a Post-ABC survey found Trump with a six-point lead among registered voters, 49 percent to Biden’s 43 percent.
President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is 19 points underwater, his ratings for handling the economy and immigration are at career lows. A record number of Americans say they’ve become worse off under his presidency, three-quarters say he’s too old for another term and Donald Trump is looking better in retrospect — all severe challenges for Biden in his reelection campaign ahead.
Forty-four percent of Americans in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll say they’ve gotten worse off financially under Biden’s presidency, the most for any president in ABC/Post polls since 1986. Just 37% approve of his job performance, while 56% disapprove. Still fewer approve of Biden’s performance on the economy, 30%.
On handling immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border, Biden’s rating is even lower, with 23% approval. In terms of intensity of sentiment, 20% strongly approve of his work overall, while 45% strongly disapprove. And the 74% who say he’s too old for a second term is up 6 percentage points since May. Views that Trump is too old also are up, but to 50% in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates.
Such is down-on-Biden sentiment that if a government shutdown occurs at month’s end, 40% say they’d chiefly blame him and the Democrats in Congress, versus 33% who’d pin it on the Republicans in Congress — even given the GOP infighting behind the budget impasse.
Trump, for his part, has improved in retrospect. When he reluctantly left office in January 2021, 38% approved of his work as president, essentially the same as Biden’s rating now. But currently, looking back, 48% say they approve of Trump’s performance when he was in office — matching his peak as president. Essentially as many — 49% — now disapprove, down from 60% when he left the White House.
…Head-to-head in a hypothetical November 2024 matchup, Trump has 51% support while Biden has 42% — numerically up 3 points for Trump and down 2 points for Biden from an ABC/Post poll in February, shifts that are not statistically significant.
There’s even less change from the most recent ABC/Post poll in May, which had the race at 49-42% (again with a different, but comparable, question wording). Still, with Trump inching over 50% — and other polls showing a closer contest — a close look is warranted.
Complete poll results at this link.
With Biden showing inclination to make a course correction like Bill Clinton did win reelection in 1996, the electorate appears to be hardening against electing Biden in 2024. Biden keeps pushing mass migration, billions for Ukraine, climate change hysteria, inflation causing policies–especially Biden’s war on fossil fuels–and extremist policies on race and sex that have soured the public on the man sold as middle of the road “Scranton Joe.”
Trump is looking better in retrospect for a strong economy with low inflation, peace abroad, energy independence and securing the border.
The election is just over a year away when factoring in early voting. Trump faces several criminal trials and civil lawsuits between now and the election while Biden faces an impeachment inquiry that will likely lead to an impeachment by the House and trial in the Senate.
Biden is deteriorating both physically and mentally with regular gaffes and bizarre outbursts. Biden has pretty much stopped using the traditional long staircase when boarding and leaving Air Force One. As Victor Davis Hanson has observed, Biden is one fall away from losing his presidency.
Biden has recently started to face calls for him to stand down and let another Democrat run in 2024. If Biden’s poll numbers continue to look as bad as they do in the ABC/WaPo poll, look for more calls for him step aside.
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