Democrat Tom Suozzi defeated Republican Mazi Pilip in a special election for the seat of former Rep. George Santos, and here are three things that we learned from the results.
3 Things We Learned From The NY-03 Special Election Results
1). Democrats Are The Better Organized Party – In what has become a consistent theme in regular and special elections, Democrats consistently win because they get their voters organized and voting. Since Trump’s takeover, the Republican Party get out the vote machine has atrophied. Republicans spent a lot of money in NY-03, but the party is cash-strapped in large part because Trump has hurt fundraising while also draining the coffers with legal bills. Democrats were able to outspend Republicans, but more importantly, Democrats out-organized Republicans. The purpose of party organizations is to win elections, and Democrats continue to prove that they are vastly superior in this area to Trump’s Republican Party.
2). Immigration Isn’t The Magic Issue That Republicans Think It Is- Trump and his party are planning on making immigration and the border the centerpiece of their 2024 campaign, but in NY-03 voters did not brave the snow out of fear of a border invasion. Pilip and the Republican Party went hard on immigration in this special election.
How hard did they push the immigration issue?
Check out this ad from the Mazi Pilip campaign:
The immigration issue backfired because of the third thing we learned.
3). Donald Trump Cost Republicans Another Election- The reason why the immigration issue backfired is that House Republicans listened to Donald Trump and killed the bipartisan border bill. The bill fell apart in the Senate after it was clear that Trump had pressured the House to sink it. Donald Trump remains the worst political strategist in America, who continues to cost his party election after election. The killing of the border bill backfired on Republicans in NY-03 because it demonstrated the GOP’s refusal to govern and solve problems. Pilip attached herself to Trump as the association likely hurt her in the special election.
The lesson is that Trump remains toxic, and he is running the Republican Party into the ground. Democrats remain the better-organized party that addresses the issues that voters care about. Extrapolating national trends from special elections is foolish, but some patterns in special elections appeared again in NY-03, and they suggest Democratic strength will continue in 2024.
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