- First-term Rep. Elaine Luria is projected to defeat her Republican challenger, Scott Taylor.
- According to the Center for Responsive Politics, Luria has raised nearly three times as much as Taylor as of September 30.
- The district is one of 30 that was won by President Trump in 2016 and represented by a Democrat in the House of Representatives.
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First-term Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria is projected to defeat Republican Scott Taylor in a rematch of 2018’s general election race in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District, Insider and Decision Desk HQ can report.
The candidates
Luria, a former Navy officer and commander, was the first female American sailor to spend her entire military career operating on combat ships, according to The Times of Israel.
In Congress, she’s been part of a group of politically moderate national security and military veterans representing districts President Donald Trump won in 2016, along with fellow Rep. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, and Rep. Max Rose of New York, among others.
While declaring his candidacy to regain his House seat, Taylor lambasted Luria and other female congresswomen with national security backgrounds, referring to them as “these girls” who “tout their national security background all the time.”
Responding to Taylor, Luria said, “Yes, I am a girl. I may wear heels now, but I wore steel-toed boots for 20 years in the Navy. It’s 2020 — girls can do anything.”
Taylor’s 2018 campaign has been the subject of a criminal investigation over whether his campaign was involved in a scheme to forge petition signatures to help an independent candidate who could have siphoned votes away from Luria to get on the ballot.
This March, a former Taylor campaign staffer pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor charge for falsely swearing that she personally circulated and witnessed the signing of several ballot petitions. Taylor himself has not been criminally charged.
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The district
Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District is located on the Eastern edge of the coastal state. The district is home to all of York, Accomack, and Northampton counties, and encompasses the city of Williamsburg and Virginia Beach as well as parts of Norfolk and Hampton.
This district voted for Trump by a margin of 3.4 percentage points in 2016, according to the Daily Kos. Luria won her 2018 race over Taylor by 2.2 percentage points.
The money race
According to the Center for Responsive Politics and Federal Election Commission filings, Luria has raised $6 million, spent $5.2 million, and has $870,000 in cash on hand as of October 14. Taylor has raised $2.3 million, spent $1.9 million, and has around $395,000 in cash on hand.
What the experts said
This race was rated as a “leans Democratic” by The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics and “likely Democratic” by Inside Elections.
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