The mainstream press is ignoring the part of the new NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist poll that shows that a guilty verdict would make 17% of voters less likely to vote for Trump.
Overall, two-thirds (67%) said a guilty verdict would make no difference to their vote; three-quarters (76%) said the same of a not guilty verdict.
Roughly 1 in 6 voters (17%) said a guilty verdict would make them less likely to vote for Trump. That was true of a quarter of nonwhites and 1 in 5 voters who make less than $50,000 a year and those under 45.
…
Small, but perhaps important, percentages of core Trump voter groups also said they would be less likely to vote for Trump if he were found guilty — those who live in small towns (17%), whites without college degrees (14%), those who live in rural areas (11%) and Republicans (10%).
Just 11% of independents said a guilty verdict would make them less likely to vote for Trump.
Seventeen percent of voters is a lot of potential voters ruling a candidate out in a close election, where the margin of victory in swing states is likely to be five points or less. The bigger problem for Trump is that the Republican Party is showing signs of not being unified behind him, so even a drop of a few points among Republicans in swing states would doom the ex-president.
These numbers are also only a starting point. If Trump is convicted, Democrats will use their fundraising advantage to hammer home the idea to voters that a convicted felon can’t be elected president.
The mainstream media is looking at these numbers from a national perspective, but presidential elections are 50 state elections. It doesn’t matter how the verdict performs nationally in polls. What matters is how voters in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia feel about voting for a potential convicted felon for president.
Even a tiny slip in support that may come with a conviction would be enough to doom Donald Trump.
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