China launched a ballistic missile capable of a nuclear warhead into the Pacific Ocean on September 25th. There is not a protocol in effect between China and the U.S. on ballistic missile launch notification. There is a protocol in effect between Russia and the United States to notify each other when conducting training or test launches of ballistic missiles. In 1988, the “Agreement Between The United States of America and The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on Notifications of Launches of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) and Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBM) (Ballistic Missile Launch Notification Agreement)” was signed.
The wording from the Agreement provided for notification, no less than 24 hours in advance, of the planned date, launch area, and area of impact for any launch of an ICBM or SLBM. The Agreement also provides that these notifications be provided through the Nuclear Risk Reduction Centers of each country. In March of 2023, conflicting reports came out whether Russia would continue this reporting after President Putin announced the suspension of the 2010 New START Treaty. Some reports said Russia would continue notification, right after some media said the previous day that Russia would no longer continue to notify.
Unprecedented Missile Launches
The Chinese ICBM launch on September 25, 2024, was conducted from a road mobile DF-31 Intercontinental Ballistic Missile on Hainan Island off the Southern Coast of the Chinese Mainland. The United States only has ICBMs in fixed silos in the Midwest of the United States. The Chinese ICBM arced over the Philippines and landed about 2,000 miles south of Hawaii, just north of Tahiti in the South Pacific. According to the South China Morning Post, “It was the first time in 44 years that China had tested an ICBM beyond its own airspace and Fu Qianshao, a former PLA equipment specialist, said China wanted to test the model to improve its long-range strike capacity, “Although the DF-31 can reach intercontinental ballistic missile levels, it has never undergone a full-range launch test, so this experiment is necessary,” “ China called the launch a “Routine Test”, but 44 years between launches does not seem routine.
It was not totally clear if advanced notification was given for the test launch. A Pentagon spokesperson said after the launch, the “US received “some advanced notification” of the test from Beijing, calling it “a step in the right direction … to preventing any misperception or miscalculation.” “ This does not appear to be an unequivocal confirmation that a full pre-launch notification was received in accordance with the terms of the 1988 agreement between Russia and the U.S. The South China Morning Post (SCMP) noted that “The United States and France have said they were given advance notification of China’s intercontinental ballistic missile test this week while other countries, including Japan, Australia and New Zealand, have asked for an explanation from China.” China has been very aggressive about asserting agreement with other parties in their “Wolf Warrior Diplomacy” tactics and the SCMP has become a Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece platform since the fall of Hong Kong so the assertion of confirmation by the United States and France should be taken in that context.
Quarantine of Taiwan by China within six months?
I was in Taiwan from September 6 to September 14, for briefings by the Taiwan government on diplomatic, defense, security, technology, and economic matters. At the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, the Taiwanese Defense and Security Think Tank akin to Mitre, Rand, or The Aerospace Corporation, several members shared concern that Taiwan was in a six-month window of a possible “Quarantine Operation to cut off Taiwan from the outside world”.
This highly risky activity would entail the PRC creating a “Cuban Missile Crisis Like” environment where ships could possibly be stopped and inspected. The Chinese Communist Party studies history intently and they know that a “blockade” would be an act of war (The US actions during the Cuban Missile Crisis were labeled as a “Quarantine”). A delivery of the first batch of 100 American, Harpoon anti-ship missiles arrived in Taiwan shortly after I departed. Shipments like this are exactly what China would attempt to block if they instituted a “Quarantine” of Taiwan.
Please deliver the weapons we have already bought and paid for and we will defend ourselves.”
Taiwan has a special and unique radar that is a clone of the American Pave Paws Radars that are in service at Otis Air Force Base (AFB), Massachusetts and Beale, AFB, California to detect submarine launched ballistic missiles off each coast of the continental United States. The Taiwanese Pave Paws radar detected several waves of additional missile launches internal to China after the September 25 ICBM launch by China. In light of all of these missile launches, the Taiwanese have declared an alert and put their sea ports and airports on higher levels of readiness in preparation for possible missile strike by the Chinese. In May, China had simulated multiple missile strikes on Taiwan to demonstrate their intent and capabilities.
While I was in Taiwan on September 9, 2024, the Taiwanese Pave Paws radar was mentioned in briefings at the National Defense and Security Research. The radar’s capabilities and contribution to regional situational awareness was highlighted – meaning the radar information is likely shared with Japan, South Korea, and the United States. The message of the briefers was clear, “we are not “freeloaders”, they asked that America deliver the weapons Taiwan has already bought and paid for and they will defend themselves. The experts conducting the briefing said, “We are not complaining or questioning the U.S. decisions on priorities of delivery, we are simply seeking what we have already paid for so we can defend ourselves”. There are over 19 major Foreign Military Sales from the United States to Taiwan that are still in progress and have not been fully delivered yet. The Taiwanese are waiting.
All viewpoints are personal and do not reflect the viewpoints of any organization.
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