The GOP own internal polling from the Senate Leadership Fund shows Kamala Harris leading Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
A summary of the Senate and presidential polling numbers from a memo:
Texas: Cruz +1 (48-47), Trump +5 (50-45)
Wisconsin: Baldwin +1 (46-45), Trump
+1 (46-45)
Pennsylvania: Casey +2 (48-46), Harris +1 (49-48)
Montana: Sheehy +4 (48-44), Trump +17 (57-40)
Arizona: Gallego +5 (47-42), TIE pres (47-47)
Ohio: Brown +6 (45-39), Trump +4 (47-43)
Nevada: Rosen +7 (43-36), TIE pres (46/46)
Maryland: Alsobrooks +7 (48-41), Harris +29 (61-32)
Michigan: Slotkin +8 (46-38), Harris +3 (45-42)
Internal Republican polling polling numbers are based on a rosy turnout scenario for the GOP, so the takeaway from these numbers is that even with a good Republican turnout model, Trump is still trailing in two of the three blue wall states.
If Trump loses, Michigan and Pennsylvania, he loss the election.
Except for Jon Tester in Montana, Senate Democratic incumbents are more than holding their own. The Republican polling memo makes it clear that the GOP is counting on Trump winning in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania and pulling the Republican Senate candidates over the finish lines. If Trump loses these states, the GOP Senate candidates are probably cooked too.
Add in the fact that Republicans could lose a Senate seat in Nebraska to an Independent, and the GOP control of the Senate is far from a given. If Ted Cruz gets upset in Texas, Republican dreams of Senate control if Harris wins the election will dead.
If the Republican internal polls show Harris leading in key swing states, it is a bad sign for the GOP and Trump just weeks before election day.
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