A little more than eight years ago, former New Mexico governor and Libertarian Party presidential nominee Gary Johnson nearly turned the two-party system on its head, coming within a couple percentage points of achieving the 15 percent threshold needed to join the 2016 presidential debate stage with Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. But as has historically been the case with third-party candidates, Johnson’s support faded in the final weeks, and he and running mate Bill Weld ended with a little more than 3 percent of the national popular vote (still a Libertarian Party record). After another abortive Libertarian run for U.S. Senate in 2018, Johnson largely disappeared from politics, enjoying the good life in New Mexico at his homes in Santa Fe and Taos with longtime partner Kate Prusack and, as he related, spending 100-plus days on the ski slopes and taking part in the annual 2,800-mile Continental Divide Mountain Bike Race. But he broke his silence Monday in an interview with Reason to share his thoughts on the 2024 election.
Johnson, who says he voted for Libertarian Party nominee Chase Oliver, predicted a Trump victory—an outcome about which he confessed to having mixed feelings. “Half of what Trump does is good,” he says. “The other half is crazy.”
Johnson supports some of Trump’s tax policies and sympathizes with his approach to the Russia-Ukraine war, but also chided the former president for anti-immigration rhetoric and says fears about Trump’s threat to democracy are “legitimate.” He’s no more favorable to Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden. Calling the Biden administration’s record “horrible,” Johnson says Harris is honest and competent but opposes her “inflationary” policy proposals, including rent control, limits on food prices, and a wealth tax. He fears both candidates would continue to explode the national debt, the “biggest issue facing the country right now.” Johnson is encouraged (and vindicated) by recent rhetoric from both candidates in favor of marijuana legalization. He still believes an independent candidate for president could win in the future, but that it would need to be a billionaire with the personal resources to compete with the two major parties.
Reason: The election is Tuesday. Have you voted yet?
Johnson: I have. I voted for Chase Oliver, the Libertarian candidate for president.
How do you see the future of the Libertarian Party, of libertarianism as a whole, and what do you think the party can do to become relevant again?
Well, based on my own experience, it is a two-party system. And the only way a Libertarian wins is if they have the resources to actually match what the Republicans or Democrats have, and I don’t see that. I think most of us, whether we’re registered that way or not, are independent, and it’s too bad there is a two-party system.
Let’s talk about the major candidates. Trump was in New Mexico recently, so let’s start with him. Back in 2016, you called Trump “the epitome of who I would never be.” What did you mean by that?
My whole existence is telling the truth and not embellishing. I found myself after the fact to have misstated a lot of things along the way, but I go out of my way to correct that with those that I’ve made a false or inaccurate representation of. That’s my life. My life starts with the truth: Tell the truth, and you don’t have to remember anything. And Trump is the person I don’t want to be regarding the truth, regarding “who are you?” My best friends will say: “Gary, you’re the only person that I play golf with that I don’t keep your score because I know you’re keeping it properly. At the end of the hole, I can count on you to record your 14.”
Has your opinion of him changed at all over the past eight years?
Well, half of what Trump does is good. It’s really good. I agree with it. The other half is just crazy. “They’re eating the dogs! They’re eating the cats! They’re eating the pets of the people who live there!” And then you got Harris on the other side talking about a wealth tax, talking about a tax on unrealized gains, [letting] the Trump tax cuts expire. So there’s that. I think everything she’s talking about is inflationary—she’s going to control rent and food. Well, to me, that’s going to be food shortages, and nobody’s going to build any sort of housing if they’re going to be subject to rent restrictions.
You said half of what Trump does is really good and the other half is crazy. Can you speak about the good?
Well, taxation, no wars over the course of him being president. Economically, [with] either one of them, we’re going to have the same $8 trillion in added national debt that Trump added to it if Harris is elected. I don’t see that deficit growing as large with Chase Oliver, and I also recognize there’s no way Chase Oliver gets elected. At this point, I’m going to predict Trump wins just based on what I’m seeing, and I could be as wrong on that as anybody else saying Trump is going to win, but that’s my prediction.
Do you think there’s any chance Trump wins New Mexico?
None. Zero.
New Mexico is the most Latino state in the country, and polls have shown Trump making inroads among Latinos, but obviously Latino voters have been in the news since this whole Puerto Rico-joke hullabaloo. What did you make of that whole controversy?
Well, just “turn the page.” Trump, when it comes to the crazy part, is just turn-the-page-to-see-what’s-crazy tomorrow. The good and the crazy.
Do you think it’s just crazy, or do you agree with people who say he’s a threat to the republic, to democracy? Or is that overblown?
No, I think it’s legitimate. That’s the crazy side. The crazy side is that, based on the things that he says, there’s validity in what you’ve just quoted.
What would be your fears if your prediction is right and he does become president? What is a rational fear, and what’s an irrational fear?
The rational is that we continue to build on the national debt, and I think that’s the biggest issue facing the country right now. It has to be addressed. He’s anti-immigration. I think legal immigration is something that this country needs in a big way—immigrants to buy into the Ponzi scheme of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.
On the Puerto Rico note, do you support making Puerto Rico—and, for that matter, Washington, D.C.—a state?
I don’t have any strong feelings on it. Puerto Rico, certainly. I don’t know about Washington itself. But Puerto Rico, yeah, we’re there, and why not?
How do you feel about the cases against Trump, the prosecutions? Trump says he’s being targeted politically. Obviously, the Democrats reject that. How do you feel about the four cases?
I’m kind of in the camp that he is being targeted. I’m going to get the number wrong here, but when they come up with a judgment of $450 million. I’ve talked to my accountant friends. Where are the damages? Where are the damages that come to that amount of money? And yeah, there’s a real case that he has been targeted—that it is weaponization of the justice system. That would be a fear also: Trump gets elected, he turns around and he does it to everyone he claims has done it to him.
Do you think he would be likely to do that?
I would think so. He’s said he’s going to do that. You know, that’s the downside. I’ll tell you a huge issue also, in my opinion, is World War III, and the fact that we’re going to potentially use U.S. weapons launched against Russia on Russian soil? I think Harris is a threat there. And nobody wants to hear the fact that, initially with Ukraine, I said because of U.S. support, are hundreds of thousands of lives going to be lost when the inevitable conclusion of all of it is gonna be that Russia will prevail unless the United States steps in in a much bigger way? And that seems to be the path at the moment with the current administration.
At this point you would support pulling the plug on Ukraine?
When Trump says he can end this in a day, ending it in a day may be, or will be, the eventual outcome, potentially years from now after that many more people die as a result of what’s going on. If that doesn’t happen, it’s going to be because we aid in the escalation of this with our support [and] weaponry that gets used on Russian soil. I mean, this is not a small deal.
Speaking of foreign policy, what do you make of everything that’s happened in the Middle East since October 7, 2023?
I’ve met with Netanyahu. I’ve been to Israel, and the takeaway I had [from the Israelis] is “the United States, thank you for your support, but we can do without it if that’s the case.” And when you look at 9/11 and what happened here in this country and the number of people that died as a result of 9/11, which is Iraq and Afghanistan, arguably it’s a million people. When you look at those that died in Israel and the relative reaction of Israel when it comes to Gaza, it’s minute compared to our response following 9/11.
But clearly among young people, there’s overwhelming sympathy for Palestinians. What do you make of the whole campus-encampment phenomenon?
Once again, based on our own reaction, Israel’s reaction is muted compared to us. So there’s a hypocrisy there if we’re not citing ourselves for, you could say, a big overreaction. And I’m not saying any of this. There’s an hypocrisy on our part that the protests weren’t happening here in this country—and not that they weren’t, but certainly [they] didn’t get as much attention as the protests regarding Palestinians.
Let’s move back to Kamala Harris. Leaving policy aside for a second, how do you feel about her as a person? Do you think she’s honest? Do you think she’s competent?
Yeah, I do. I mean, I think she’s honest, I think she’s competent, but that doesn’t alleviate my fears if she’s elected, and that’s the whole inflationary everything.
Talk a little more about your top fears with a Harris administration.
Just that inflation continues in a really big way. She’s talking about a wealth tax, she’s talking about a tax on unrealized gains. I realize that that’s for those who are making over $100 million, but that’s the toe in the door, and I don’t want to be part of having unrealized gains taxed, which would be the next step at some point down the road.
She came out recently for marijuana legalization. Do you feel vindicated that people have been coming over to your side on this issue?
Yeah, she’s made some very positive statements regarding marijuana, and so has Trump, saying that he’s going to vote for recreational marijuana in Florida. Harris’ comments have been more positive, but who’s to say that Trump doesn’t follow that same route?
What about Joe Biden? What grade would you give his presidency?
I think it’s been horrible. Giving away free stuff on the part of government. The [Inflation Reduction Act] has been just the opposite. The way that COVID was handled. And then the cover-up of Biden and his apparent senility. I don’t attribute that necessarily to age because I’m getting up there myself. I think it’s beyond age, that which Biden suffers from. [I’m] not meaning to say he’s suffering, but clearly his faculties aren’t all there.
Trump is also nearing 80 years old. Do you think he is mentally up to the job, or will be for the next four years? Do you have any concerns about his cognitive capacity?
Sure, I’ve got concerns just like everybody else does. He’s gonna get elected, he’s gonna be in office. He’s that same [age.] I mean, here it is—this is what we’re talking about, and there are legitimate concerns. I didn’t vote for him. I didn’t vote for Kamala. I voted for Chase Oliver, the Libertarian candidate.
What do you make of the two running mates, J.D. Vance and Tim Walz. Do you have anything to say about them?
Not really. I mean, you have a half-and-half split on each one of those. There’s good, there’s bad. You make a choice as a voter. I’ve made a choice as a voter, as zero impact my vote will end up having.
You’re a former Republican. What do you make of the general direction of the party under Trump? What are your hopes and your fears for the future of the GOP? Are there conditions under which you would consider becoming a Republican again?
Yeah, absolutely. I think Trump has alienated a lot of Republicans, I’m one of them. Having been governor for two terms, what I recognize is, [when] you’re the party nominee, you control the party. Trump right now controls the party, whether all Republicans like it or not. I do believe it’s a two-party system. I do believe that an independent has a chance of getting elected, but that chance exists only when that independent candidate can use their personal wealth to match the fundraising of either the Republican or the Democrat. In the last election, Bloomberg would’ve been the only candidate that could have run as an independent and may have been successful.
Is there anyone else on the sidelines that you could see being that force of personality that does what you attempted to do in 2016?
The person that would have the biggest impact is, once again, the person who would have the resources to actually play in a game that costs zillions of dollars. So you’re looking at a billionaire, an independent billionaire, that might run.
Do you think that Trump is going to run away with it? What makes you think he’s going to win?
No, I don’t [think he’s gonna run away with it.] I’m taking one side of what appears to be a coin flip at this point. I guess betting odds—I guess people that bet may have a better inclination. That’s just my gut feeling, and it’s been off and on. I mean, who would have dreamed that Biden would have dropped out? Who would have dreamed that Kamla would have been the nominee so quickly and so easily? Who would have dreamed that Trump came within inches of losing his life, and that there seems to be a Trump resurgence in all this? And now you’re looking at the swing states and the analysis that’s going on there. Based on all that, I’m just thinking that Trump is going to win.
Is there anything else you have to add at this hinge moment in history?
In my lifetime, and certainly going back to Nixon-Kennedy, I understand that, statistically, that was pretty close before the election, but I was too young to really recognize that. But in my years of recognition, I think this is the only race where it’s a coin flip.
And do you have any preference between the two major candidates?
I don’t. I really don’t.
This interview has been condensed and edited for style and clarity.
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