The CEO of one of Thailand’s leading conglomerates is keeping her “eyes and ears open” on changes to U.S. trade policy—and expects that Thai exports to the U.S. won’t escape new tariffs from the Trump administration.
Currently, the Trump administration has slapped tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, as well as blanket taxes on steel and aluminum imports. The duties are in line with U.S. President Donald Trump’s pledge to tax imports on countries that he believes are treating the U.S. unfairly.
The next important date is April 2, when the Trump administration will impose reciprocal tariffs on a country-by-country basis.
Thapanee Techajareonvikul, CEO of Thai conglomerate Berli Jucker, in an interview with Fortune on Wednesday, said she expects the U.S. President will impose tariffs on Thai exports. “We will face a little,” Thapanee predicted.
In spite of the two countries’ good relations, Thapanee pointed to Thailand’s trade surplus with the U.S. as a reason why tariffs may be unavoidable.
Thailand’s trade surplus with the U.S. totaled $45 billion last year, according to U.S. government data. That’s modest compared to other economies in Southeast Asia: Vietnam, which has benefited from shifting supply chains, enjoys a trade surplus of $123.5 billion with the U.S.
In a conversation with Fortune on Wednesday, Thapanee admitted that her business, which covers everything from glass bottles and aluminium cans to food and personal care products, will need to navigate U.S. tariffs, if they come into effect. “Our snack factory produces for the U.S. market,” she explained, adding that Berli Jucker also plans to exports glass bottles to the U.S. this year.
She suggested Berli Jucker will expand into more markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East as a way to mitigate any new U.S. tariffs.
But uncertainty reigns when it comes to Trump’s trade policy, with new tariffs proposed and then suspended, sometimes within the same day.
Thapannee said she’s keeping her “eyes and ears open” for news out of Washington.
Thailand’s private sector is urging Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra to start talks with the Trump administration. On Thursday, Paetongtarn met with representatives of the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking. The private sector group proposed that Thailand import more from the U.S. while lowering its tariffs in order to reduce the country’s trade surplus, according to Reuters.
Even if Thailand escapes tariffs, a U.S. trade war will still have significant effects on Southeast Asian businesses, whether by distorting exchange rates or changing raw material prices. For example, Trump’s 2018 tariffs on aluminum led to a global increase in prices of the metal in the months that followed.
Tariffs on China are also likely to further encourage Chinese manufacturers to diversify their supply chains, in the hope of avoiding U.S. tariffs. During Trump’s first term, global manufacturers moved their factories to countries like Vietnam and Mexico.
“With the U.S. policy, I think a lot more Chinese manufacturers will come to invest in Thailand, to have production in Thailand, so they can send to the U.S.,” Thapanee predicted. She worries a continued influx of Chinese manufacturers going global, who can sometimes offer products more cheaply, might put pressure on Thai firms.
Governments are worried about a flood of cheap Chinese imports disrupting their economies. Vietnam and South Korea both imposed provisional tariffs on Chinese steel panels in February. HSBC warned in February that a “tariff cascade” could be dangerous for China, given its reliance on external trade as a way to prop up the economy.
Berli Jucker’s 2024
Thapanee isn’t just keeping her “eyes and ears open” for news on tariffs. She’s also paying attention to Thailand’s aging population and an economy that’s still recovering from the effects of the pandemic.
Despite those headwinds, Berli Jucker had a good 2024, a result that Thapanee said she was pleased with.
The Thai conglomerate reported revenue of 171 billion Thai baht ($5.1 billion) in 2023, up 1.7% from a year before. Gross profit came in at 32 billion baht ($950 million) with a profit margin of 20.3%, the company’s highest ever since it acquired the retail chain Big C in 2016. Operating profit came in at 13 billion baht ($385 million)
Thapanee said the higher profit margins were driven by investments in renewable energy and technology that reduced cost at its factories. The company also entered premium segments of the market to fend off Chinese competition, such as selling three-ply tissue paper rather than try to match Chinese sellers on price.
She also noted that Berli Jucker is hoping to make glass bottles for cosmetics and pharmaceuticals. Brands are “confirmed,” though she declined to share names.
Berli Jucker, ranked no. 79 on Fortune’s Southeast Asia 500, is a diversified conglomerate that has businesses in manufacturing, healthcare, and retail.
Berli Jucker also owns the hypermarket Big C, which operates in four markets in Southeast Asia, as well as the Chinese city of Hong Kong. (Thapanee’s husband, Aswin Techajareonvikul, is the CEO of Big C. He was also previously the CEO of Berli Jucker).
In 2023, Big C said it was considering a plan to pursue a dual listing in both Bangkok and Hong Kong, confirming earlier reports that the supermarket chain hoped to raise $1 billion through an IPO. A month later, the company delayed those plans, citing a wish to wait for better economic conditions.
During an interview with Fortune last October, Thapanee said an IPO could be possible in 2025 if market conditions were right. Yet on Wednesday, she said Berli Jucker is, for now, not moving forward on its plan to list Big C.
“If you see the stock market of Thailand, it’s very disappointing. We won’t be expecting [to list] anytime soon,” she said.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
