How Omicron wave compares to NSW’s worst flu season

Experts say Omicron will likely have more recorded cases but will place a similar strain on the system as the flu season. Although Covid cases are sharply rising, and experts are waiting on more data, early figures suggest the Omicron strain’s milder ­impact could be on par with severe influenza for vaccinated people.The public reaction is markedly different though — in 2017 the strongest health messaging was simply telling people to sneeze into the crook of their elbow to slow the spread. In 2017, 1255 Australians died from influenza, with 494 deaths recorded in NSW, ­figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show. Over the flu season, which stretches from April to October, 360 people were admitted to ICU and 164 pregnant women were hospitalised ­because the flu posed complications for their pregnancies.NED-4835-rapid-Covid-testData from the NSW government’s 2017 epidemiology report showed that 9330 people were hospitalised from ­influenza and a further 6539 were hospitalised with influenza as a secondary illness.While official figures separating the total hospitalisations, ICU patients, and death rate from Omicron are not available because of the simultaneous circulation of Delta, it’s understood that most of the ICU admissions remain in people with the Delta strain.There have been 65 deaths since November 27, when the first Omicron case was announced in NSW, and 261,896 cases.Daily Telegraph – News Feed latest episodeMicrobiologist Peter Collignon said for fully vaccinated people, comparing Omi­cron and a “bad flu” was valid, however the unvaccinated ­remained at risk of getting ­severely ill.“If you’re double vaccin­ated, your chances of coming into grief from Covid currently are lower than your death and complication rate in winter in the flu season,” he said. “Covid in general had a 20-30 per cent higher complication rate than influenza but with vaccination you got that down by 20 per cent and with Omicron it comes down further.“Once you’re vaccinated, at least double vaccinated, it’s in the same ballpark as a bad winter influenza season.” Although the trends app­ear promising, the death of a fully vaccinated and healthy man in his 20s, reported on Thursday, is a warning for young people to not become complacent with boosters and precautions. His death came alongside five others on a day that NSW recorded 34,994 new cases.NED-5263-New-Covid-19-close-contact-definitionInfectious diseases physician Paul Griffin said it was difficult to create exact parallels between Omicron and the flu because NSW data was no longer being separated by variants.“I would think the severity would be similar potentially … (and) the health system burden may well be similar, but we need more information,” he said.Virologist Tony Cunningham said South African data suggested that Omicron could be comparable to the more severe H3N2 strain of influenza, which was present in the 2017 flu wave.“I’ve been trying to get ­information on how Omicron affects the ageing and some of the South Africa data suggests that it is comparable to H3N2 where it’s the ageing and immunocompromised that are at risk,” he said.“We know Omicron is less invasive in the lungs than the nose … (but) there is still Omicron and Delta circulating which is worthwhile to note.”Prof Cunningham said broad comparisons between the two viruses were true and could be drawn however Covid attacked the body in a different way.“The broad comparisons are true, but these two viruses work in different ways. Influenza mainly causes death in the ageing from predisposition to bacterial pneumonia but coronaviruses cause problems themselves.”The comments follow changes to testing requirements from the national cabinet and a push towards rapid tests and personality responsibility from Premier Dominic Perrottet.And it appears the testing overhaul has had its impact with queues at Bondi Beach’s previously jam-packed PCR clinic tamed on Thursday, with a modest dozen motorists waiting to be swabbed.Roselands also had smaller queues, with traffic flowing freely on King Georges Rd for the first time in weeks, according to the Transport Management Centre.“It was much better today at all of the testing sites, there‘s certainly been a reduction in terms of the impact on traffic,” a spokesman said.The eased conditions came despite nearly 80 clinics remaining closed across the state until January 10, with others only open between 8am to 12pm before shutting down.NED-5192-DT-App-Banner