The yield on the key 10-year Treasury is plummeting as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine wears on

• The 10-year Treasury yield has slid by nearly 30 basis points since Russia invaded Ukraine last week. 
• The hefty drop is the result of a bond rally sparked by investors seeking safety in US debt. 
• The yield hit a six-week low of 1.711% on Tuesday. 

The widely watched yield on the 10-year Treasury bond hit a six-week low Tuesday, highlighting its sharp swing downward as investors search for relative safety in US government debt in the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

Bond prices rallied following reports that Moscow was intensifying its assault against the former Soviet republic, including shelling in Ukraine’s second-largest city of Kharkiv. A large Russian convoy was approaching Kyiv, NBC News reported, with Russian troops in the capital meeting fierce resistance from Ukrainian forces.

Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. 

The 10-year yield fell as much as 13 basis points to 1.711% during Tuesday’s action, the lowest since January 24. It later pared the decline to 1.722%. 

The yield has tumbled by nearly 30 basis points from 2% last Wednesday, just before Russia launched a full-scale attack against Ukraine.

Global stock markets earlier Tuesday had tried to stabilize “on the back of falling Treasury yields in response to fresh sanctions and as a whole host of Western companies cut ties with Moscow,” said Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, in a note. But losses in US stocks, notably on the tech-concentrated Nasdaq Composite, which is sensitive to a rising 10-year yield, accelerated during Tuesday’s trade.  

Multiple reports said Tuesday US officials believe President Vladimir Putin may launch a more aggressive attack against Ukraine because he’s angry with apparent blunders made by the Russian military so far.

The 10-year yield during 2022 had spiked up to 2%, reflecting expectations for the Federal Reserve to begin an aggressive run of interest-rate hikes to tame hot inflation. US consumer prices surged to a 40-year high of 7.5% in January on an annualized basis.  

But investors are starting to price in the possibility that the Fed may delay raising rates in the wake of the crisis in Ukraine. The Fed’s first meeting of 2022 will conclude on March 16, with investors watching for the US central bank’s decision. The Fed funds rate stood between zero and 0.25%, slashed by the Fed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.