Infectious diseases experts said the virus was likely to mirror influenza and reappear every year but its impact on the health system would also ease with the arrival of multi-strain vaccines and nasal sprays.Epidemiologist Professor Peter Collignon said Covid was “here to stay” but current intensive care numbers were “a promising sign”.“I think it’s (Covid) here to stay. If you look at the Spanish flu, it went on for another 50 years after 1918 but the first two years of any virus tends to be worst. There will be less effects next year and the year after,” he said.“ICU’s are seeing relatively less cases than they saw in January which is when we had the first big spread of Omicron. That is the most promising sign, that a lot of people in hospital with Covid may well have it conditionally but it’s not the same as what it was a year ago.“It’s not good to have it anyway but it just shows the overall effect in causing serious disease or death is much less than a year ago.”Infectious diseases expert Professor Paul Griffin said pharmaceutical companies were due to release “bivalent” vaccines which will include protection for Omicron but the game-changer would be “multivalent” vaccines that would protect against all the strains circulating in the community.“My personal prediction is the virus will be with for a very long period of time but our ability to deal with it will continue to improve,” he said.“We are going to close the gap and even be ahead of the game in the next year or so as we get second generation vaccines, variant specific boosters and better therapies.”Prof Griffin expected Covid would go from being a pandemic to “a seasonal epidemic with changes in the virus”.He said most viruses get weaker with time but Covid could have more severe strains along the way — similar to the new BA.5 strain which is driving cases in NSW.“The longer term trajectory is they get weaker or milder but along the journey we could still have one that is a bit more severe,” he said.“Like what we are seeing with BA.5. We shouldn’t assume it will fade away by itself to nothing.”NED-6507-Covid-Booster-GuideBiostatistician Professor Adrian Esterman said nasal sprays could overtake vaccines to prevent Covid in the coming years.“A good percentage of common colds are caused by coronaviruses. Having had a cold doesn’t protect you from having another one but the good news is having a cold doesn’t kill you,” he said.“We will eventually get vaccines as nasal sprays. The virus usually gets in through your nose or your throat and these are notoriously difficult to attack with a vaccine or medication.“It’s very hard to get the vaccine into that area. Whereas if you had a nasal spray, it would directly coat the sinuses and throat with this immunity.”Prof Esterman said the upcoming bivalent vaccines to target Omicron would lower the skyrocketing case numbers in winter and research was underway around the world for nasal sprays.
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