How we really stack up in Covid modelling

But virus experts say the roadmap — based on Burnet Institute modelling of current and possible post-lockdown scenarios — forecast a worst-case scenario in relation to the number of people who will wind up in hospital. So far, the experts say, we are going better than expected. The modelling predicted Victoria was set to reach a peak seven-day average of 1960 daily cases on October 25 — but so far, our seven-day average is sitting at 1732.Under the modelling, more than 1660 people would be in hospital and 360 in intensive care, but as of Monday, only 677 and 133 were in hospital and ICU respectively. NED-4592-projected-effect-of-easing-restrictionsThe Burnet Institute predicted a cumulative death toll of 946 between July and December this year. Victoria’s death toll so far is 913 for the entire pandemic. Deakin University Epidemiology chair Professor Catherine Bennett said it was a good thing the predictions on hospitalisations and deaths had so far not stacked up. “The model isn’t a perfect fit, in a good way,” Prof Bennett said. “Even if we haven’t reached our peak we can cope with the hospitalisations as we have looked at the worst-case scenario.” Prof Bennett said it was quite possible Victoria had hit its peak and daily case numbers may plateau this week.NED-4595-Modelling-outcomes-NEW-DIAGNOSESNED-4595-Modelling-outcomes-HOSPITALISATIONNED-4595-Modelling-outcomes-ICU-DEMANDNED-4595-Modelling-outcomes-CUMULATIVE-DEATHS“We are hoping we have kind of peaked now. Where we are in relation to hospitalisation … is a lot lower … than what they were predicting,” Prof Bennett said. “The good news is while we have seen cases, we have more people with a single dose and that’s keeping them out of hospital.”“That, or the virus has been circulating in younger people, and not the older age groups as they have been vaccinated, and they (younger people) are less at risk (of being hospitalised).”“All of this makes a big difference in how the case numbers translate to hospitalisation,” she said. The Burnet Institute declined to comment on September’s modelling.

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